What’s next after Iran’s missile barrage on Israel? Mideast experts weigh in

For the second time in six months, Iranian forces launched a massive aerial barrage at Israel. What does this latest flashpoint hold for the region after Israel’s punishing campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon? Geoff Bennett has perspectives from two longtime watchers of the region, Suzanne Maloney and David Makovsky.
Geoff Bennett:
Well, for the second time in six months, Iranian forces launched a massive aerial attack on Israel.
What does this latest flash point hold for the region after Israel’s punishing campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon?
We have perspectives now from two longtime watchers of the region. Suzanne Maloney is a vice president of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution. And David Makovsky is the director of the Koret Project on Arab-Israel Relations at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Thank you both for being here.
Suzanne, we will start with you. I want to start with your reaction to today’s developments. What does it suggest about the future course of this war?
Suzanne Maloney, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution: Well, I think we’re on the precipice of something that we really haven’t experienced before, which would be a direct engagement, a direct military conflict between Israel and Iran.
The two countries have been locked in conflict for decades, but it has largely been a gray zone war. And for their part, the Iranians have primarily relied upon proxies, including and especially Hezbollah, in order to wreak violence against Israel.
What we’re now seeing in April and with this latest attack is that they are prepared to violate a taboo that had held for 45 years, a direct attributable attack from Iran against Israel, which does run the risk of a direct interstate war, which would have devastating consequences for Iran and for the wider region.
Geoff Bennett:
And, David, give us a sense of how Israel is calibrating its response right now, especially in light of this statement from the prime minister that Iran made a big mistake and will pay for it.
David Makovsky, Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy: Look, you have 181 ballistic missiles. I think it takes 12 minutes for a ballistic missile to leave Iran and land in Israel.
These ballistic missiles landed all over the country. This is something Israel has never experienced before in 76 years. So, a threshold has been crossed here too. I agree with every word Suzanne said. She’s 100 percent right. This is a new threshold.
So I think an Israeli retaliation is certain. To me, the only question is the target, the scope, the timing. And I don’t know to an extent in terms of wanting to be sure the U.S. is on board with all of Israel’s strikes, how much consultations are in advance. Tomorrow evening begins the Jewish new year of Rosh Hashanah, which is a time where Jewish families gather with their families.
What, are they can be in their safe rooms this holiday? It’s not a way to have a two-day holiday. So I don’t know if the strike will be delayed until there’s more consultations, until the holiday is over, but a retaliation is certain. This is a new threshold that’s been crossed.
Geoff Bennett:
Delving more deeply, Suzanne, into Iran’s calculation here, this attack is significant. It’s much stronger than the one in April.
Yet the IDF said it intercepted a large number of the ballistic missiles. Is Iran in some way showing restraint, or is what we saw all it can do right now?
Suzanne Maloney:
I don’t think Iran is showing restraint. I think, in fact, this attack was not as heavily signaled as the one that took place in April, for which the United States was able to prepare carefully with Israel and with other partners and allies around the region to ensure that there would be a successful effort to repel it.
In this case, I think it was a much dicier, much shorter turnaround time. And I think what we saw today is not restraint on the part of Iran, but rather the capabilities of Israel’s air defense system and the support from the United States, which made it possible to ensure that there were apparently only one casualty, and that happened to be a Palestinian in the West Bank.
Geoff Bennett:
Where does this leave Hezbollah, especially given the Israeli stepped-up occupation and — operation, rather, in Southern Lebanon?
David Makovsky:
Well, look, its leadership has been decapitated. We have never seen anything like this. There have been targeted killing of one of these people, but we never saw the entire top tier, including the leader himself, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, killed.
So I think they have been wanting Iran to come to their defense. We have heard stories about fireworks tonight in Beirut and Amman and Gaza, saying, finally, here’s Iran coming to our aid. Don’t forget, I mean, Qasem Soleimani, who was the legendary head of the Revolutionary Guards, this was his concept, the ring of fire, all the proxies.
Hezbollah was supposedly the jewel in the crown of Soleimani, of the Iranians. And now, if Israel’s decapitated their leadership because they want to make Israel unlivable, both the north and the south, where people had to abandon their homes for a full year, they want to know now, OK, now we’re in disarray. What is Iran going to do for us?
So here’s what we see tonight, and I expect this to be an escalatory spiral at this point.
Geoff Bennett:
U.S. officials today at the White House, at the State Department, at the Pentagon, they all expressed this view that a diplomatic solution is the only solution for a lasting peace right now.
Is that achievable at this point, in your view, today?
Suzanne Maloney:
I don’t think it’s imminent, unfortunately.
There has been a lot of diplomatic effort invested in trying to advance a cease-fire in Gaza, and there has also been throughout this long war in Gaza a serious effort on the part of the White House to try to persuade Hezbollah diplomatically to pull back from the Israeli border and to eventually disarm, as required under a prior U.N. Security Council resolution.
I think that there had been some optimism that if one could be achieved, the cease-fire had been presumed to be the first order of business, that the second could be achieved diplomatically.
Now, with the region aflame and with the likelihood of an Israeli response against Iran, which will inevitably precipitate some kind of Iranian retaliatory effort, whether it’s another barrage of missiles or whether it’s an effort to try to reactivate terrorism against Israel and Israeli interests around the region, I think we’re in for a very difficult time ahead.
Geoff Bennett:
And de-escalation has been the primary interest of this administration, and that has not been the story of these last two weeks.
Does the administration have any leverage left, or is Netanyahu really impervious to U.S. influence at this point?
David Makovsky:
Well, look, I think, as Suzanne said, I mean, the U.S. put all — we put all of our eggs in the cease-fire-for-hostage deal on Gaza.
I think we were close at certain points. The U.S. certainly not lacked the energy to make this happen, but, in the end, couldn’t bring it over the finish line. There’s going to be a lot of finger-pointing on why that didn’t happen. I think, in the end, it comes back to Yahya Sinwar maybe in a tunnel somewhere, but leave that aside.
Look, I hope we don’t see a regional war. I mean, let’s be clear. All the Arab governments, there’s not one that is for the Iranians. When we say regional forces, we’re talking about proxies like Houthis and Hezbollah and people like that. Most of the Arab states see Iran as a destabilizer.
Now, can the U.S. say, Israel, OK, you will get your retaliation, but, after that, let’s find a way out of this, let’s find the off-ramp? I still think it’s possible. I don’t think a regional war is preordained at all. But, clearly, the U.S., our first choice was the cease-fire-for-hostage deal, and that now seems that we’re — very unlikely.
Geoff Bennett:
In a minute we have left, what does an off-ramp look like at this point?
Suzanne Maloney:
I think an off-ramp really has to be a decision the part of the Iranians that they’re not going to retaliate once they’re hit by Israel, because that is fundamentally the next step.
And I think that where we are with the Iranian leadership, I wouldn’t bank on any further restraint.
Geoff Bennett:
Suzanne Maloney, David Makovsky, thank you so much for your insights and for being here at the desk with me. I appreciate it.
David Makovsky:
Glad to.
Suzanne Maloney:
Thank you.